ANNAPOLIS — A report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects that Maryland retirees would see average monthly Social Security benefit cuts of about $523 starting in 2032 if the retirement trust fund is exhausted without reforms.
The analysis estimates that more than 60 million Americans could face cuts averaging $500 per month under current projections. Without changes, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is expected to be depleted in less than seven years, triggering an automatic 24% across-the-board reduction in benefits.
The committee used the most recent state-level data to estimate impacts on current retirees. Retirees in Connecticut, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Michigan and Utah would face the largest average reductions, ranging from $556 to $523 monthly.
Mississippi retirees would see the smallest average cut at $459 per month. That amount equals the projected monthly grocery budget for the average senior household in 2032, based on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data adjusted for inflation.
The estimates align with a recent Congressional Budget Office report that highlighted Social Security’s role in supporting household finances in retirement, especially for lower-income families. The office noted that the program reduces wealth disparities through its progressive benefit formula and broad coverage.
Retirees make up about 17% of the U.S. population as of 2026, with state shares ranging from 10% to 23%. Insolvency would affect personal finances and state economies. In 47 states, more than 15% of residents would be directly impacted. In Maine, West Virginia, Vermont, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Wisconsin, the share exceeds 20%.
By 2032, seniors are projected to comprise 22% of the U.S. population, with the total population exceeding 360 million and the number of people age 65 and older reaching about 82 million, according to federal projections.
The committee stated that restoring solvency will require difficult tradeoffs but urged quick action to avoid abrupt cuts affecting all beneficiaries. It noted that insolvency is projected during the terms of the next elected senators and president.
Options discussed by the committee and other groups include shifting to a flat benefit structure, slowing benefit growth for higher earners and limiting cost-of-living adjustments for the top half of beneficiaries. Reforms that would reduce benefits remain politically sensitive.
U.S. citizens age 65 and older have the highest voter participation rates, with more than 80% registered and nearly 75% voting in 2024.
In Southern Maryland, where many residents rely on fixed incomes, the projected reductions would affect household budgets in Calvert, Charles and St. Mary’s counties. Retirees there participate in local economies through spending on housing, healthcare and daily needs.
